Last week, SHFE tin prices opened high during the night session but plummeted significantly. Demand has yet to show the September-October peak season fervor. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

September 8, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2510) opened slightly higher during the night session but then plunged sharply, closing at 269,700 yuan/mt, down 0.92% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The 13th China Semiconductor Equipment and Core Components and Materials Exhibition (CSEAC 2025) Semiconductor Manufacturing and Equipment & Core Components Chairman Forum, jointly organized by the China Electronic Special Equipment Industry Association and Shanghai Securities News·China Securities Network, was held in Wuxi. Li Weiming, CTO and Vice Chairman of Micro-Nano, stated in his keynote speech, "Within three to five years, the number of transistors on a single chip is expected to reach one trillion, and the global semiconductor market size is projected to hit $1 trillion." At the outset of his speech, Li noted that these "two trillions" illustrate the future development prospects of the semiconductor industry, which also presents new opportunities for materials, processes, and equipment. Li emphasized that "logistics must precede troop movements," likening equipment and materials to the "logistics" of wafer fabs. Equipment suppliers must innovate ahead of wafer fabs rather than waiting for clients to lead. Beyond meeting customer innovation needs, Li highlighted that domestic equipment suppliers offer more efficient service capabilities in customer support, customized processes, and equipment, enabling stronger support for local wafer fab development. (2) Cristiano Amon, CEO of Qualcomm (QCOM.O), stated that Intel's (INTC.O) current production technology does not yet meet the supplier standards for smartphone processor manufacturers. Amon remarked in an interview that if Intel improves its manufacturing process to produce more energy-efficient chips, Qualcomm would consider partnering with it. "Intel is not our current choice," Amon admitted, "but we hope to include them in our options in the future." The CEO noted that Qualcomm will continue collaborating with existing foundries TSMC and Samsung Electronics. As a chip design company, Qualcomm, like most in the industry, relies on outsourced production. Meanwhile, Intel, once the world's largest chipmaker, is attempting to attract external clients like Qualcomm to reverse its decline while maintaining its own chip manufacturing business. (3) US President Trump stated at the White House on Sunday that he is prepared to enter the second phase of sanctions against Russia, coming closest to hinting at escalating measures against Moscow or its oil buyers due to the Ukraine conflict. Trump has repeatedly threatened further sanctions against Moscow but refrained from imposing them while pursuing peace negotiations. These latest remarks suggest an increasingly aggressive stance, though he did not directly commit to such a decision or specify what the second phase might entail. Former President Trump defended last Wednesday that he had already taken action against Russia, including imposing punitive tariffs on India's exports to the United States last month.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major producing regions such as Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters maintained production halts for maintenance in September (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush ended, orders for PV tin bars in east China declined, and some producers saw lower operating rates; Electronics industry: The electronics terminal in south China entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only meeting essential needs; Other sectors: Demand in areas such as tinplate and chemicals remained stable, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market yesterday was less heated than expected. Although tin prices fluctuated downward, most downstream and end-user enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude, with some downstream companies making small purchases. Most traders reported transactions of only around 10 mt, while a few traders traded more than one truckload.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]